What's Going On: Did Joni Ernst win the election, or did Bruce Braley lose it?

 Joni Ernst might be one of the luckiest people on the planet. 

As I write this Monday morning, Red Oak’s most beloved pistol-packing momma appears to be running away with the race for the U.S. Senate. While I typically hesitate to make any kind of election predictions due to resounding ineptitude in that field, I feel very confident the Des Moines Register’s weekend poll indicating she has a sizable lead is accurate. 

While it seems like eons ago, it was just a few years ago Joni was sitting in a boardroom taking notes at Supervisors meetings. Then, she easily won a special election to the state Senate and was re-elected after running unopposed. 

That’s when everything started falling into place for Ernst and her political aspirations. 

First, Tom Harkin retired. That started the domino affect of finding a replacement and there were plenty of Republicans lined up to get their name on the ballot.

Ernst was fortunate on that front for two reasons: one, she was the only woman, allowing her to stand out from the other five candidates, and two, the other five candidates weren’t exactly political powerhouses. 

Throw in a memorable ad campaign and Ernst dominated the primary, giving her campaign some great momentum heading into the general election.

And that’s just about the same time Ernst’s political slot machine rolled out a triple cherry as Bruce Braley’s campaign started imploding. 

If I were a true conspiracy theorist, I’m pretty sure I could make a compelling argument Braley was actually a Republican agent; a political terrorist cell planted by the GOP years ago, who would unleash him at a critical moment. 

This mid-term election in general, and the Iowa Senate race specifically, have been identified as a key battle ground over which party will control the U.S. Senate for the remainder of Barack Obama’s term. 

With the GOP controlling the House of Representatives, taking control of the Senate would be instrumental not only in the short term, but in the upcoming presidential race. 

And yet, Bruce Braley has seemingly run the worst campaign he possibly could to the point that it almost seems like by design.

First, he insults the beloved Charles Grassley and farmers across the state with a disparaging remark at an out-of-state attorney’s conference/fundraiser. 

Then, he alienates women by calling Ernst a “chick” in an early campaign ad that was later pulled. 

And to add to his campaign’s downward spiral, national figures Bill Clinton and Michelle Obama, who were supposed to help reinvigorate his campaign, actually hurt it by calling him Bruce Bailey. 

Both of them did it a month apart. Really? This almost sounds like a Karl Rove dream. 

If there was a “how-to” guide on getting elected to the U.S. Senate, Ernst has followed it to a T. Her strong right-wing rhetoric got her noticed in the primary, and she has wisely shifted it to a more moderate approach in the general election. She’s visited all 99 counties and enjoyed the benefits of a great advertising campaign. She’s raised the most money and avoided any major gaffes, despite the opposition’s best efforts to find a rattling skeleton in her closet. 

But most of all, Joni just didn’t screw up a good thing. She let Bruce Braley do that, which is why he went from leading in the polls just after the primary to trailing by a large margin just a few months later. 

Braley’s self-destruction has been something amazing to watch. And now, Ernst has placed herself in a position to capitalize on that good fortune and will use it to catapult her career from Montgomery County to Washington D.C. 

Gregory Orear is the General Manager/Editor of the Red Oak Express and Glenwood Opinion-Tribune. He can be contacted at publisher@redoakexpress.com.